Decision: PS3 vs PS7

For the sober morning version of me. Written ~3:30am, hyped. Read it rested before committing. Links: ps3-surface-aqi-hcho · ps7-exoplanet-light-curves · invite.

The two options

• ps3-surface-aqi-hcho — Surface AQI & HCHO. We already won this domain (SIH 2025 @ ISRO SAC, NO₂/O₃ Delhi forecasting). Safe, less crowded, proven pipeline, but a repeat.
• ps7-exoplanet-light-curves — Exoplanet detection from noisy light curves. New ground, my Mallorn technique transfers, GPU-optional, but a crowded generalist field.

Comparison

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Can I enter both?

Most likely no as one person: registration is team-based, a team picks one problem statement, and one person is normally on only one team. To cover both you'd need a second team you're not on. Confirm with [email protected] before relying on it — otherwise pick one.

The reasoning (don't let the caffeine decide)

• The "PS3 has better odds" number assumed equal effort. It isn't equal — motivation is a multiplier. An obsessed me on PS7 can beat a bored me on PS3.
• "We already won PS3" cuts against it: PS3 = re-running a race I already won; PS7 = breaking into new territory and beating people who live there. Better story, more growth.
• My PS7 edge is not imaginary — Mallorn = rare-event classification from noisy light curves. I'm ahead of the generalist crowd on day one.
• The sadness I felt about "pick PS3 for odds" is data: it means the metric is missing a variable, and that variable is me, fully engaged.

Tentative call

Lean PS7 — slightly lower raw odds, but once you fold in my real edge + the effort multiplier of loving the work, the gap closes and I come out having built something new. PS3 stays the pure-safety pick if I want max trophy probability.

Guardrail

• [ ] Re-read this rested. If PS7 still pulls → commit. If it looks reckless in daylight → PS3 was the truth.
• [ ] Email organizers re: multi-entry, if still tempted by both.
• [ ] Timeline: idea proposal due July 1, shortlist July 20, 30-hr finale Aug 6–7.