title: CBAM Compliance Tool: Startup Thesis tags: [startup, cbam, compliance, research]
CBAM Compliance Tool: Startup Thesis
One line: verifier-ready CBAM emissions reports for Indian MSME exporters (foundries first) at Rs 1.5 to 3L per year instead of Rs 10 to 25L consultant engagements.
Related: getting-fundable, kliens, cbam-software, cbam-commodity-tree
Why demand is forced (no convincing needed)
- EU CBAM definitive regime live since 1 Jan 2026. EU importers of iron/steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen must declare verified embedded emissions per shipment and buy certificates (EUR 75 to 90 per tCO2, tied to EU ETS).
- No verified data means EU default values, set 30 to 80 percent above reality, so the Indian exporter eats a 15 to 22 percent effective price cut or loses the contract.
- 3,000 to 4,000 direct Indian exporters exposed, plus 25 to 30k indirect. 4,500+ foundries (Rajkot ~500, Belgaum ~160, Coimbatore ~40 percent of national casting output). First annual verified reports due through 2026-27.
The two regulatory findings that make the pitch (from primary law)
- Electricity does not count for steel and aluminium. Annex II of Reg (EU) 2023/956: only direct emissions are embedded emissions for iron/steel and aluminium goods. Induction-furnace (electric) foundries have structurally low CBAM numbers; India's dirty grid is irrelevant.
- Scrap is CBAM-free. CN 7204 (ferrous scrap) is excluded, so zero precursor emissions for scrap-fed melting. Most Indian foundries are scrap-fed. Also excluded: FeSi, FeSiMg and most common alloying additions.
Consequence: a scrap-fed induction foundry's actual number is a fraction of the EU default. Computing actuals is not compliance overhead; it is a price cut their EU buyer feels directly. We sell margin, not paperwork.
Sales pitch (to a foundry owner)
"Your EU buyer currently pays CBAM on an inflated default number, and that cost is priced against you. I compute your actual number from your electricity bills, fuel invoices and production logs. It will likely be several times lower. Verifier-ready file, Rs 2L a year, versus Rs 10 to 20L to a consultant."
Interactive: CBAM cost, default vs actual (demo math for pitches)
<div style="font-family:system-ui;color:var(--color-text);width:100%">
<div style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(230px,1fr));gap:10px">
<label>EU exports (t/yr) <input id=tons type=number value=2000 style="width:7em"></label>
<label>Default intensity (tCO2/t) <input id=dv type=number step=0.1 value=2.5 style="width:5em"></label>
<label>Actual intensity (tCO2/t) <input id=av type=number step=0.1 value=0.5 style="width:5em"></label>
<label>Certificate price (EUR/tCO2) <input id=price type=number value=80 style="width:5em"></label>
</div>
<div style="margin:10px 0">Year <input id=yr type=range min=2026 max=2034 value=2026 style="width:60%">
<b id=yrv>2026</b>, CBAM factor <b id=cf>2.5</b>% (free allocation phase-out)</div>
<div style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr 1fr;gap:10px;text-align:center;margin-top:8px">
<div style="border:1px solid var(--color-border);border-radius:8px;padding:10px;background:var(--color-bg-alt)">
<div style="color:var(--color-text-secondary)">On DEFAULT values</div>
<div id=cd style="font-size:22px;color:var(--color-error)">EUR 0</div>
</div>
<div style="border:1px solid var(--color-border);border-radius:8px;padding:10px;background:var(--color-bg-alt)">
<div style="color:var(--color-text-secondary)">On ACTUAL values</div>
<div id=ca style="font-size:22px;color:var(--color-success)">EUR 0</div>
</div>
<div style="border:1px solid var(--color-accent);border-radius:8px;padding:10px;background:var(--color-bg-alt)">
<div style="color:var(--color-text-secondary)">Buyer saves / yr</div>
<div id=sv style="font-size:22px;color:var(--color-accent)">EUR 0</div>
<div id=svr style="color:var(--color-text-secondary);font-size:12px"></div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="color:var(--color-text-secondary);font-size:12px;margin-top:8px">
Cost = tonnes x intensity x certificate price x CBAM factor. Factor phase-in per Reg 2023/956:
2.5% (2026) to 100% (2034). Illustrative; per-product defaults come from the EU DV file.
</div>
</div>
<script>
const F={2026:2.5,2027:5,2028:10,2029:22.5,2030:48.5,2031:61,2032:73.5,2033:86,2034:100};
const $=id=>document.getElementById(id);
const ids=['tons','dv','av','price','yr'];
ids.forEach(i=>{ $(i).value=store.get(i,$(i).value); $(i).oninput=calc; });
function fmt(x){ return x.toLocaleString('en-IN',{maximumFractionDigits:0}); }
function calc(){
const t=+$('tons').value,d=+$('dv').value,a=+$('av').value,p=+$('price').value,y=+$('yr').value;
const f=F[y]/100; $('yrv').textContent=y; $('cf').textContent=F[y];
const cd=t*d*p*f, ca=t*a*p*f;
$('cd').textContent='EUR '+fmt(cd); $('ca').textContent='EUR '+fmt(ca);
$('sv').textContent='EUR '+fmt(cd-ca);
$('svr').textContent='about Rs '+fmt((cd-ca)*90)+' per yr at Rs 90/EUR';
ids.forEach(i=>store.set(i,$(i).value));
}
calc();
</script>
How the machine works (who does what)
flowchart LR
A[Indian foundry installation] -->|bills, invoices, production logs| B[US: ingest + calc engine, monitoring plan, emissions report, evidence pack]
B --> C[Accredited verifier ISO 14065 / NABCB]
C -->|verified report| D[CBAM Registry operator portal, we operate it for the client]
D --> E[EU importer files declaration, buys certificates]
- We are NOT the verifier (accredited firms) and NOT issuing certificates (EU governments sell those to importers). We are the data-prep layer. No license needed. Tally-vs-CA analogy.
- Installation means one physical site; price per installation per year.
Regulatory data model (IR 2025/2547, ingested from primary text)
- Operator > Installation (Registry ID, UN/LOCODE, coords) > Production process > source streams x calculation factors, precursors, goods per CN.
- Functional unit: tonnes per CN (kWh electricity, kg of N for fertilisers, t clinker for cement).
- Foundry category is "Iron or steel products" (all 73xx castings, fasteners, structures plus rolled 72xx). Boundary: fuel combustion plus flue-gas process emissions incl. re-melting, casting, forging, annealing, coating; excludes plating, cutting, welding, finishing.
- Monitoring plan and emissions report in English, via CBAM Registry; report template is Annex IV (15 sections, field by field: our output spec).
- Art 15: actual and default mixing allowed (own process actual, precursors default), so easy client onboarding, improve incrementally; default share disclosed.
- Precursor rules: weighted averages across periods and installations (Arts 13, 14).
Docs and repo
Legal stack (14 files) plus DIGEST.md at ~/projects/cbam/docs/: Reg 2023/956, IR 2025/2547 (calculation, 86pp), IR 2025/2546 (verification), 2025/2548 (cert price), 2025/2620 (free alloc), 2025/2621 plus official default-values XLSX (Feb 2026), benchmarks XLSX, EU communication template XLSX (target output format), operator guidance, Registry access guides.
Channels / first calls
- Karan Hiranandani (freelance CBAM, Green Delta Metrics): hand-builds what we automate
- GreenMinds India (Rajkot): sits in a 500-foundry cluster
- Belgaum Foundry Cluster: ~160 units, held ESG/CBAM workshop Feb 2026 (ACMA Mobility Foundation, GIZ-sponsored; funded programs need tools)
- IIF chapters, EEPC webinars; verifiers: TUV SUD, SGS, KBS, Carbon Check (NABCB list)
- Competitors: Sentra World (EEPC-appointed), CleanCarbon.ai, The Sustainability Cloud; all chasing bigger exporters, MSME tier open
- Deal: consultant white-label, roughly 70/30 split, nothing upfront either side
Next steps
- [ ] Ingest Annex II B and D (emission formulas) plus Annex III (attribution math)
- [ ] Schema-dump default-values and communication-template XLSX into the v1 data model
- [ ] IR 2025/2546 verifier checklist into the evidence-pack spec
- [ ] Build calc engine plus demo on a sample foundry dataset
- [ ] 5 calls: 1 verifier, 2 consultants, 2 exporters